Provincial Forecast

The Provincial Streamflow Forecast for Saskatchewan describes the general water supply conditions in the province and provides forecasts of potential flow conditions and lake levels. This report is prepared on a monthly basis in the spring runoff period.

The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority is starting to prepare for the 2010 spring runoff with the issuing of the March 2010, forecast. Above normal precipitation prior to runoff, and/or a faster than normal melt, could result in significantly higher runoff. Also it must be emphasized that this forecast is based on limited data and should be used as a general guide for large areas. Local conditions may vary significantly.

Spring Runoff Potential Summary

Agricultural Portion of Saskatchewan

As of March 1, 2010, the winter precipitation across the agricultural portion of the province is generally above normal in the southern portion of the province, decreasing to near normal in the boreal transition area. The southwest portion of the province has received well above normal precipitation and, even with extremely dry antecedent fall moisture conditions; well above normal runoff potential exists. The southeast area of the province has also received above normal precipitation, although not as extreme as the southwest. However, the southeast received more fall moisture, so the runoff potential is also above normal. North of a line extending from Rosetown to Melville (approximately Highway 15) the winter precipitation has been near normal, so the runoff potential is near normal. However, the fall moisture in this area varies from very dry in the western portion to relatively wet in the eastern portion, so a slow melt could result in high losses and low runoff in the west, while a fast melt could result in above normal runoff in the east.

With a typical rate of melt and normal spring precipitation, no major runoff issues are projected with the exception of potentially high flows in the southwest portion of the province where at the very least flooding of low lying areas is expected in the southwest. Even with an average rate of melt a number of communities in the southwest are at risk of flooding. A rapid melt will almost certainly cause significant flooding issues in the southwest.

Northern Forested Portion of Saskatchewan

In the northern forested portion of Saskatchewan, the runoff potential is generally below normal with the exception of the far northeast which is still relatively wet from last year. Most tributaries to Reindeer Lake are still flowing well above normal, thus even with normal precipitation, flows will be above normal. Flow on the Churchill River continues to gradually recede. Releases from Reindeer Lake will continue to maintain plant capacity at Island Falls generating station and to draw down Reindeer Lake for preparation for the 2010 runoff.

North and South Saskatchewan Rivers

Flows in the North Saskatchewan River are at normal levels for this time of year, while flow from Alberta on the South Saskatchewan River is below normal. Snowpack accumulations in the mountain headwaters of both rivers are well below normal (lower quartile). Unless above normal spring precipitation occurs, runoff will be well below normal. Based on the present snowpack, Lake Diefenbaker is not projected to fill this year.

Current Spring Runoff Potential Map

The Peak Spring Flows Table provides a projection of the expected flows and corresponding volumes throughout the province.

The Peak Spring Water Level Table summarizes the expected water levels on several lakes throughout the province.

Individual regional forecasts are provided for the following basins:

The Watershed and Basin Boundaries map may be used to identify basin locations in the province.

The complete Monthly Forecast PDF may be downloaded as one document.

The Saskatchewan Watershed Authority acknowledges the assistance of Environment Canada for providing the climatological and hydrometric data used in this report. Snow survey data for the headwaters of the Saskatchewan River basin are supplied by Alberta Environmental Protection.

Author: River Forecast Centre, Basin Operations, Operations Division

Updated: March 2010